captainjohann

Hi naddem
 Many happy returns of the day

President Abraham Lincoln spoke at Gettysburg "Four score  and seven years ago our fathers brought forth  on this continent a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.-----that this nation , under God, shall have a new birth of freedom- and that government: of the people,by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth."
  President Obama when he was a candidate gave his vision in the following words "This century's threats are at least as dangerous as and in some ways more complex than those we have confronted in the past. They come from weapons that can kill on a mass scale and from global terrorists who respond to alienation or perceived injustice with murderous nihilism. They come from rogue states allied to terrorists and from rising powers that could challenge both America and the international foundation of liberal democracy. They come from weak states that cannot control their territory or provide for their people."
"As commander in chief, I would also use our armed forces wisely. When we send our men and women into harm's way, I will clearly define the mission, seek out the advice of our military commanders, objectively evaluate intelligence, and ensure that our troops have the resources and the support they need. I will not hesitate to use force, unilaterally if necessary, to protect the American people or our vital interests whenever we are attacked or imminently threatened."
   There is a review of AFPAK policy going on with best of minds of  Present   administration.But the 17,000 troops surge is happening even before the review is over and approved by the President
   Candidate Obama promised to bring American troops from Iraq, a war which he voted against as senator and a war which he promised to close by bringing all the American troops before Xmas, later extended to 16 months.Today we hear the President has extended it further to 2011, a date originally promised by Bush. Not only that a number of 50,000 out of the present 1,42000 troops will remain may be indefinitely.The American people voted for Obama over Macain because they thought MaCain is going to be a Bush third term.But suddenly we find Obama Presidency is turning out to be almost Bush third term compared to the campaign promises.
  What we find is that American people in spite of all the primary debates within the parties and then the Presidential debates and campaign promises are not considered intelligent enough to KNOW the TRUTH about various issues affecting them. What we see is that Government policies are run by special interests. These interests donot want to be more influenced by general public which may NOT BE ADEQUATELY INFORMED about specialised need of the American nation.This can be high finance,national security issues, but can be slowly expanded to include even health care,education, and time taken to sign the bills after it was approved by the senate(obama promised at least one week but in actual practise he is giving only two days or even less!!)
  Indian media used to talk about how ignorant is general Indian populace about various issues affecting them like Indo/US nuke deal wherein even elected parliamentarians may not know the difference between Uranium and plutonium.But now i find that Americans voted for change with regard to Iraq,Iran,AFPAK, but actually they are getting Bush III.I can say with a smirk that it is not Indian population alone are taken for a ride but also the population of America, the oldest democracy in the world.
 SPECIAL INTERESTS  alone RUN THE COUNTRIES  EVEN IN Old/BIG DEMOCRACIES.

  

The governors of IAEA board approved a 31 page "CONCLUSION OF SAFEGUARDS AGREEMENTS AND ADDITIONAL PROTOCOL"  which will allow the IAEA inspectors additional powers. This additional power  will allow the Inspectors to inspect 100 additional nuclear related materials including software and hardware.This will include the following.
1.Entire reactor
2.Heavy water plants,
3.Reactor core groups,
4.Coolant and vacuum pumps
5.Parts of fuel producing centrifuges,
6.Spectrometers
7.Uranium metal products
8.Laser systems
   Not a single question from NDA stalwarts like Jaswant singh,Yeshwant Sinha ,Arun shourie
   Not a single question from Praksh Karat and Yechury
   Not a single question from Media or discussion on this issue.
   Of course it is UPA which has signed this  deal additional protocol.
   What is funny about the whole issue is our so called intellectuals asked Musharaff at India Today summit
was about Dawood Ibrahim!!!
   Nobody asked him how could a nation which is 1/4th size of India can demand PARITY which he espoused openly.
   Nobody asked about Shimla agreement
   Nobody asked about privatisation of terror and whether a nation can be absolved of the crime if
so called "private actors" commit terror?

   People are more worried about Dawood than about this additional protocol which may impinge on our future generation.

                       AN AFGHAN SURGE BY OBAMA/ An Indian view of Opium trade.
    As America is retreating( so called surge is basically asking for fig leaf before the exit as in Iraq) , there is tremendous amount of churning going on in Afghanistan. This was evident to everyone for sometime .When President Karzai desperately wanted Mullah Omar to accept his offer of safe passage was the first sign and also when Saudis hosted the conference in Mecca. Why such importance to this tiny country whose people live in caves mostly.The Jihadies have already gone into the caves of Wazirstan.Then Why? It is the poppy and heroin trade which has come back into life after the NATO forces took over the country from Taliban. Taliban who not only enforced Sharia but also other stringent Islamic conditions on the people ensured that poppy was not cultivated at all.Though this infuriated the ordinary Afghans they enforced it ruthlessly.This also ensured the vanquishing of Drug Mafia run by Drug lords like General Dostum,Ishmeil Khan etc etc.When ISAF took over, it opened the flood gates of Freedom of media,personal liberty but also to grow poppy.Initially it ensured the ordinary Afghans were happy with money which came from this trade .The ISI through TALIBAN  also did not abolish this trade but used it to subvert the central rule of Karzai  who was once an ISI asset.
   US winked at this  as long it was supporting Pakistani army and ISI  but not affecting its global interest in Pain killers market in Europe.But ISI is no fool as can be seen by its reach in subverting Indian police and NCB officials and pushing high grade Heroin into India.It thinks subverting Indian elite through heroin and other poppy drugs is as effective as terrorist attack against India.As the global prices for Heroin crash in European market, CIA is waking up to face the challenge of protecting its market in Europe and USA.
   One must know Iran/contra scandal and how drug money played an important point of that scandal or operation by Oliver North of CIA.
   Again General Noreiga and his connection to CIA and drug cartels is something everyone knows.
   But the connection between ISI and CIA through drug money is not much known as it is intricately linked to jihadi terrorism  which gets more media space.The question is ISI CANNOT SURVIVE AS AN INSTITUTION WITHOUT THIS OXYGEN from DRUG TRADE.
    Every one knows about poppy cultivation and how it is used in producing Opium and its illegal derivatives Heroin and Cocaine.But few know about CODEINE AND MORPHINE the legal pain killers are also made from opium.Legal pain killers are consumed by only SIX countries in Europe.The market is of course controlled by genuine Drug manufacturers. But the cost is linked to illegal opium production as very few countries produce legit opium. Turkey and India are some of the leading legit producers.
   The cost of production also is a factor.
   1 Kg of Morphine is produced  for $ 56 in Australia
   1 Kg of Morphine is produced for $160 in India
   1 Kg of Morphine is produced for $ 450/- in Afghanistan.
   The precursor chemicals like Ascetic an-hydride and others and their smuggling also are a factor in this trade.

   Again HAWALA in Afghanistan is controlled by poppy induced illegal money. One finds the hawala centers are the same which also produce illegal opium. Helmand is the Hqtrs of both Illegal opium and hawala trade.The drug and hawala route are also same.
  1.Helmand- Pakistan- Iran
  2.Herat-Iran
  3.Faizabad(Badsha Khan province-Tajikistan-Pakistan-China.
  93% of World's Illegal opium is grown in Afghanistan.Out of which 70% is grown in Helmand.Again a small border town in Helmand bordering Pakistan  called  Baramcha is the focal point of all the illegal trade in opium and Hawala.The world's intelligence agencies have their meeting point in this small but prosperous town.
   The total economy of Afghanistan is 7.8 Billion US dollars. While illegal opium trade is more than 5 Billion US dollars!!!Now one can understand how important is drug trade is to Afghanistan and also to Jihadies and also to ISI.

   TALIBAN  just impose a small 10% of tax on opium produced in areas which they control and one can easily imagine the money they control and why Pakistan is crying hoarse about the recent drone attacks. When one sees that Pakistan as a nation got only 4.5 billion  US dollars from IMF, the money which Taliban/ISI axis are controlling in Afghanistan is mind blogging. But USA must be aware of this and allowed it.   UK is in contrary policy option is due to their posting in Helmand where 2 para of UK just provide security to poppy crops of Afghan farmers for some consideration must be.!!!UK is the nation which indulged in opium war with China during 18th century.It knows how to make profit in every situation. UK is growing recently poppy at DIDCOT county in UK. Macfarlan Smith a pharma company is given the license to produce the poppy. Of course our foreign policy mandarins knew anything about this poppy /pharma connection in UK is antibody's guess because they were surprised at Millibands outburst. Canada is another country which is facing the problem of seduction of Drug money on its soldiers and CONTRACTORS like Compass Integrated Security solutions who are even blamed for death of a Canadian soldier.
      Taliban are able to completely ignore or reduce taxes on non/opium trade in the area they control as long as one pays 10% tax on the opium produced and thereby winning the hearts and minds of ordinary farmers. So a reduction in cultivation will force them to increase the non/poppy tax base. Increase in opium production is a sort of vested interest created in Taliban by US and ISI through their drug lords. But Taliban have been very clever .They have built a significant buffer stock of the crop and so any reduction in cultivated area will only add to the price increase , which they can exploit.
    Saudi funding for insurgency has significantly reduced to TALIBAN who have no ISI connection.So it is Drug money which is actually fuelling the insurgency and economy of Afghanistan and also FATA/WAZIRSTAN.Then what is the game plan of
Obama administration in inviting the following for his inauguration.
1.Gul Agha Sherzai
2.Dr.Ashraff Ghani Ahmedzai
3.Ali Ahmed Jalali
4.Abudullah Abdullah, ex foreign minister from northern alliance.
   He is trying to do what President Reagan did by inviting Gulbudin Heketmayer to his ranch even though he was known as the warlord who threw acid on faces of Kabul university girls.Why he is trying to replace Karzai with one of these war lords? These guys are not angels.The reason is DRUG TRADE AND DRUG MONEY which made even Zilmay Khalizad (ex American Ambassador to UN) salivating for the job.
   What India should look for in this scenario?
   1.India must look at the surge of US forces and its deployment.Whether it is trying to stop the poppy cultivation or trying to act as a protector of Afghan farmers doing the cultivation?
   2.Whether any effort is being made to stop the 10% tax which Taliban are imposing on behalf of ISI?
   3. What type of new war lords are being created and what are they being asked to do?
   4.Whether Drone attacks are being stopped inside Pakistan as demanded by Pakistan and Turkey.
   5.Whether HAWALA is being routed through Peshawar or through Herat?
   6.What happens to GITMO detainees ( who were actually drug lords caught during the 2001 war)who are going
to be released?
   7.NATO forces are supposed to thin during 2011 .Who is allowed to take over in HELMAND in the guise of a criminal war lord(not Jihadi!!!) will be the significant pointers for Indian policy.If this guy is going to be a Saudi/ISI guy then India has to be wary of USA.
   8.What role Turkey is going to play in the scheme of things will also be pointer to geopolitical landscape in future.TURKEY'S full solidarity and support for PAKISTAN'S sovereignty,political independence,and territorial
integrity is known.Indian foreign policy mandarins must look at turkey's idea of Pakistan's territory.(http://www.mfa.gov.tr/pakistan---turkey-joint-statement_-ankara_-october-27-31_-2008.en
   Here is major NATO MEMBER where  NATO IS functioning in Afghanistan (who is not a member of NATO) WHO HAS NOT RECOGNIZED DURRAND LINE ,which is its border with Pakistan(MAJOR non/NATO ally of USA) is being given the security cover by a NATO MEMBER.I do not know what is the take of Indian foreign policy Mandarins on this issue.What is the policy of Turkey on the border between Indian and Pakistan? The recent  spat between Erdogan and Peres of Israel is one of an issue or it is Turkey effort to gain the leadership of Islamic world though it recognises Israel may be with a wink from USA.
   9.The effort by ISI to rekindle KHALISTAN AGENDA among the Sikh Diaspora especially in Canada has to be watched closely.The drug money
can win any one and white Canadian politicians are no exceptions. India knows how Canadian royal Mounted police handled its Sikh assets
even though they killed nearly 400 innocent Indians through mid air bombing of Air India jet.The ex/ISI boss Lt.Gen.Javed Nasir who is controlling 150 Sikh gurudwarahs in Pakistan through PGPC is known for his suaveness with regard to use of Drug money.He violently opposed Benazir's distaste for fomenting Sikh extremism in India through ISYF( Lakhbir Rode),Wadhawan Neeta(Khalistan Zindabad force),P.S.Panjwar(KCF),Gajinder Singh(Dal Khalsa).All these guys especially Rode is being given leadership role for recruiting Sikhs in India through its agents or by reigniting Anandapur Saheb resolution through  remnants of Bhindranwale's followers who are in legit mode in various political parties of Punjab.
10.The biggest threat is how this drug money is being used by Pakistan's ISI to undermine INDIAN ECONOMY which it feels is the real reason for world taking note of India.This also will suits CHINA which is not at all happy at the rejuvenation of Indian psyche after the drubbing it gave in 1962.
a)Printing and distributing fake Indian currency notes through D/COMPANY, Sikh's ISYF,HUJI(Bangladesh) along with Indian LET,JEM operatives in KERALA AND HYDERABAD.The recruitment for training of these operatives are done in Saudi Arabia,UAE etc where normally most of these expatriates work.Missing youths from these areas should be an area of prime concern for Indian security agencies.
b)Disrupting INDIAN TOURISM. Mumbai attack can be also seen as a sort of disruption of Indian tourism industry along with those attacks  in Jaipur,Bangalore and attempted ones in Goa.
c)Disrupting Indian Cricket especially the IPL being a money spinner for Indian Economy.
d)Along with Satyam, the Indian money bags can be vulnerable to BLACKMAIL. There is an email circulating about Swiss bank accounts of Indian Big cats and how Swiss authorities are willing to divulge the names if asked for by Indian Government.
   As General Hamid Gul commented in a recent blog about RAW. It is 24/7 war with Indian Intelligence and he is proud of his ISI waging it successfully. The bombing of Indian embassy in Kabul may be an attack on those honest middle level intelligence operatives by ISI though it may look like a terrorist act. I understand the black market rate for obtaining an Indian visa from our Kabul embassy  is 300 US dollars for single day clearance while it is 200 US dollars for clearance in 4 days.This is a hefty amount for ordinary Afghans who have to travel to India for MEDICAL HELP as in this one area none can beat India in the quality of health care for the money paid. But Indian staff have to be paid well enough so that they donot indulge in petty corruption. India also should think of opening a lady Gynaecology hospital meant only for ladies in Kandahar instead of building roads which serves the interest of ISAF.

                Nuclear dilemma of India/ some answers

           Pakistani military has realized  that in case of any future India – Pakistan war, the possibility of either side achieving a clear-cut victory or suffering an abject or total defeat is no more a possibility under the current NUCLEARIZED  circumstances.  While a clear-cut, decisive or total victory is not conceivable for Pakistan because of the vast differential in conventional military capability between India and Pakistan, the availability of a viable and credible nuclear capability with Pakistan precludes the spectre of an abject Pakistani defeat and thus, a corresponding total victory for India.So the Pakistani military thought of a strategy of sub-limited confrontations or even limited indirect conflicts but ensuring that these are not permitted to escalate to a stage where either of the sides to the conflict is forced to contemplate the employment of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction. Kargil is a test case of this strategy.While their hyped-up domestic public opinion(created by media) might go along with their decision to wage a war, the leaders would be required to show some achievement for it when it is all over. In fact, the very survival of the political structure that took the country to war in the first place would depend to quite an extent on the outcome of the war.  So   TERMINATE THE WAR IN FAVOURABLE NOTE BEFORE UN VOTE is the MANTRA.
  Kargil gave General Musharaff the following advantages.
1.The perception of failure was put on the elected civilian leadership Nawaz and he was ousted from power.
2.Then Indian leadership legitimized Military dictatorship of Gen Musharaff by inviting him to Agra under again American influence.
      The Pakistan Military was very satisfied by terminating a war against more powerful India with a favorable stalemate. So Kargil in a sense is a favourable outcome militarily for Pakistan with so called irregulars occupying territory across LOC in Indian held Kashmir. But it also proved one thing to Pakistan Military leadership that Indian POLITICAL LEADERSHIP WILL NOT DO ANYTHING WITHOUT OK FROM USA which includes LAUNCHING OF NUKES or conventional war. So politically also it is gain for their think tanks. Pakistan military knows now that it will have sufficient warning before Nuke option or conventional strike is exercised by India. But its first option and keeping it almost always ready to launch is not only the key to its survival as state  but also making the very launching of conventional military strike by India into a question mark for its planners.
The most obvious manifestation of this accepted Indian weakness is the fact that Pakistan, unlike India, has reserved the right of 'first use' of nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s leadership are fully aware that being militarily weaker in the conventional realm, they are far more likely than India to reach their nuclear threshold earlier and as such cannot under any circumstances subscribe to the option of ‘no first use’ as India has stated in her draft nuclear doctrine. Although Pakistan also espouses the desire of possessing a triad-based nuclear force, it currently just like India  has only  the potential of using either manned aircraft or surface-to-surface ballistic missiles for delivering nuclear warheads, with the third leg of the triad still being developed. It is precisely this realization that Pakistan would be most probably be the first one to resort to employing nuclear weapons using her two-dimensional nuclear potential that has motivated India’s quest for anti-ballistic missile systems such as the Russian Su-300 / Israeli Arrow-212 and the Phalcon AEW13 that she is desirous of inducting as soon as possible. While the former would serve to provide an element of defense against Pakistan’s ballistic nuclear-tipped SSMs, the latter would pose a strong defense against any efforts of the Pakistan Air Force to deliver nuclear weapons, by interdicting these aircrafts in air itself.These very purchases also confirms to Pakistan that India will not strike first with Nukes.
    Moreover in my reckoning, a nuclear threshold does not really apply to India(when Pakistan is the adversary) since Pakistan does not currently possess the conventional potential to force India’s reaching a point where she is forced to employ her nuclear weapons.Of course when China or any other P5 become an adversary then the  Nuclear threshold can be rapidly reached.From the Pakistani perspective, nuclear weapons are not only meant to deter the onset of a war but rather these are weapons  are also required for deterring and possibly averting an abject defeat. In other words India cannot reach that nuke thresehold even when the Indian  Army is winning!!!
Deterrence in South Asian environment has to be viewed as a two-tiered concept, especially from Pakistan’s perspective. The massive and almost decisive conventional asymmetry that confronts Pakistan could lead it to view its deterrence policy according to the following requirements.
   First and foremost, the purpose of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is to preclude the possibility of India embarking on any military adventure against it, even if it is limited to a purely conventional conflict. This is the traditional form of deterrence that this world has witnessed earlier also. By fielding a credible nuclear force, Pakistan wants to deter the initiation of any military operations by India on the basis of her established nuclear capability that is liable to be employed if India not does abstain from embarking on military operations against it. From this perspective, Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence could be classified as an instrument for deterring conventional war. Pakistan's military thinking could be summed up by saying that she would project her nuclear arsenal to convince India of the futility of embarking on a full fledged conventional war against her by insinuating that the availability of nuclear weapons with Pakistan obviates the possibility of the Indian military achieving any significant objectives during a conventional limited war.
  The second tier of Pakistan’s deterrence will come into play once hostilities have broken out between the two countries and the war is not going well for Pakistan. In this situation, with its back to the wall, Pakistan could be forced to employ the nuclear weapons as a weapon of last resort to forestall an imminent scenario of abject defeat. The objective here would be for Pakistan to threaten India with its use of the nuclear weapons unless that war is brought to an abrupt and complete stop. This would be a really desperate situation from the Pakistani viewpoint that could well justify the employment of nuclear weapons against India. In order to keep the Indians guessing, it can be expected that Pakistan would intentionally maintain an element of ambiguity about her 'nuclear threshold' while simultaneously ensuring that it is taken into consideration in the preparation of its war plans by India.
  Conversely, India’s nuclear deterrence, unlike Pakistan’s, is not aimed at preventing conventional war. Rather, it is designed to avert the Pakistani usage of the nuclear weapons. This indicates that while Pakistan’s nuclear wherewithal is aimed at preventing a conventional war, India’s is designed to prevent a nuclear exchange. This is a significant difference between the deterrence philosophies of the two South Asian nations that must be taken into account. From this it also flows that while Pakistan’s nuclear prowess has more of a 'first use' connotation, India’s nuclear arsenal is designed more as a second strike or retaliatory option and the draft Indian nuclear doctrine more than amply elucidates these two aspects. The fundamental purpose of Indian nuclear weapons is to deter the use and threat of use of nuclear weapons by any State or entity against India and its forces. In this policy of ‘retaliation only’, the survivability of Indian  arsenal is critical.Has India ensured it?This stark difference between the nuclear philosophies of India and Pakistan highlights the point that while Pakistan’s nuclear potential is contributing to the maintenance of conventional stability in South Asia, that of India is essentially instrumental in the maintenance of nuclear stability in the region. While the former is aimed at preventing the break-out of a conventional war, the latter serves to dissuade both the countries from going nuclear. This difference in the nuclear philosophies of India and Pakistan would figure very prominently in any future military conflict in South Asia unless India changes its philosophy due to the games Permanent five is playing in Indian subcontinent and Afghanistan.

         If a train of events is set in motion by India opting to commence a limited intensity campaign disregarding the threat of a Pakistani first use of her nuclear weapons possibly on the premise that the limited end-objectives of this campaign would not warrant crossing of Pakistan’s nuclear threshold. The COLDSTART theory of 8 independent action Brigades comes out of this premise.It is quite possible that India's hand could be forced into using them  by an increased involvement of Pakistan in the Kashmir or an attack like that of Mumbai(which was meant to deny its own involvement) Planning for this phase of operations has to be very carefully articulated keeping mind the perceived nuclear threshold of Pakistan and would have to be integrated with a massive media campaign aimed at convincing not only the domestic populace but also the entire global community that India’s hand was forced by the prevailing situation and the adoption of a military option being warranted, India was justified in adopting this extreme course of action. India would also have to ensure that the objectives stipulated by it for the military offensive are so limited in nature and magnitude that these preclude any overstepping of Pakistan’s nuclear threshold.
Having been unable to deter India from embarking on a conventional conflict, Pakistan must be following a two-pronged strategy – a diplomatic offensive aimed at heightening the concern of the international community simultaneously with the adoption of a higher state of readiness of its nuclear forces. The second step will signify Pakistan’s resolve not only to India but also to the other interested parties of the world like USA, UK and China.
 that India’s persistence to violate Pakistan’s nuclear threshold will involve a nuclear strike by Pakistan. If India does not get dissuaded by the danger and possibility of a Pakistani nuclear first strike and continues the conventional conflict, this might put Pakistan in a corner with no option but to go nuclear. It is this type of argument which the west is lapping it up and Pakistan laughing all the way.
   Pakistan by keeping its nuclear decision making option from its elected  political leadership has kept the prying eyes of USA from deciding the security of state of Pakistan unlike Indians. Though President Zardari is head of their Nuclear command authority every one knows the true picture.
   Perhaps the most widely quoted statement of a Pakistani official on the issue of nuclear thresholds surfaced after an interview that Lt. Gen. Kidwai, the Director General of the Strategic Plans Division gave to a group of Italian social scientists. In this statement, General Kidwai was quoted as having said, It is well known that Pakistan does not have a "No First Use Policy". Pakistani nuclear weapons will be used, according to Gen. Kidwai, only “if the very existence of Pakistan as a state is at stake”. This has been detailed by Gen. Kidwai as follows:
a. India attacks Pakistan and conquers a large part of its territory (space threshold)
b. India destroys a large part either of its land or air forces (military threshold)
c. India proceeds to the economic strangling of Pakistan (economic strangling)
d. India pushes Pakistan into political destabilization or creates a large scale internal subversion in Pakistan (domestic destabilization)
  He also made it very clear that his weapons are directed against INDIA only.
  Our reaction to Mumbai attacks has convinced Pakistan that
1.Cold start of the 8 independent brigades have no autonomy.
2.The Indian political leadership has no S.O.P for a situation like that of Mumbai in which
our Military leadership is given autonomy to retaliate quickly without waiting for political permission in any place of its choosing in J&K OR even across international border.The recent Poonch encounter must have convinced Pakistanis of this perception.
   1. UK suddenly linking the solution of Kashmir problem as the root of  all Jihadi problems between India and Pakistan and also Afghan stabilization  .
   2.The new US ambassador to UN is talking about Kashmir as an international problem along with Palestine?        
   3.The  attempt to nominate Richard Holbrook as special ambassador for India/Pakistan on Kashmir.
   4.The recent Haqqani media blitz in USA could NOT be carried out without wink from Obama security team.
        Indian leadership has by now known
1. That UK and USA are both coordinating their strategy to denuclearise not only Pakistan but also India.
2.Their national interest is more attuned to getting a fig leaf of a deal with TALIBAN(mullah Omar) in
Afghanistan with power sharing.They just want to protect the illegal drug trade being carried with connivance
of ISI and some elements of Afghan government who are beholden to SAUDIES.
3.Indian largese to Afghanistan  in the guise of infrastructure is not helping in any way Indian national interest while weakening our real friends the northern alliance
  .The following statement by  General Kidwai of SPD on 13th january 2009 should also be taken with
lot of care by India.

       "What Kidwai is very keen to do is reassure the international community that as things sort of get worse and worse in Pakistan in terms of terrorism and Taliban and all the rest of it; still the Pakistan military can be trusted to keep these weapons safe and secure," said Shaun Gregory, director of the University of Bradford's Pakistan Security Research Unit.

Kidwai has been trying simultaneously to dissuade India and the United States that they could somehow destroy or remove Pakistan's nuclear weapons in a time of crisis, according to another expert.

"The first point would be, if you think you can target our weapons, India, they're secure, forget it. If you think you can find out where our weapons are, the United States, they're secure, forget it -- and we're not going to give you that kind of access, no matter how many hundreds of millions of dollars you give us. These are two very important messages that any patriotic Pakistani logically would want to emphasize," said Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Education Policy Center.

"They're very concerned about the possibility that there will be a commando attack against their infrastructure, if we knew enough, in a crisis, and that at the end of the day they would end up with no (nuclear) weapons. And that's their worst fear," agreed Ken Luongo of the Partnership for Global Security.

Luongo said Kidwai's public relations efforts were suspect because Pakistan has not allowed the United States or others to see the nation's security measures firsthand.

"It's all coming out of the SPD officials, and there hasn't been any way to independently verify what exactly it is that they've done, or how they've instituted the (security) improvements, or how they're working. They won't let anybody close enough. This is all being done on kind of an arm's length basis," he said .

  

   Pakistan army is not a fool that they will expose their nukes to aerial attacks by Indians or Israelis even in case of conventional war between both of us unless we reach their nuclear thresehold fairly quickly.But they are capable of bringing in surprises.The size of Individual nukes is the key and whether they have miniaturized enough to fit in torpedoes of submarines or missiles.Whether missiles could be neutralized before their launch is the key.The Indian mujaheddin,naxalites could be used by Pakistan to sabotage Indian launch pads of our missiles and airbases.So we must prepare our self for this eventuality and then only think of launching a conventional strike.Also SWAT and Wazirstan and Saudi arabia are the places the Pakistan bomb could be hidden by UMMA Tameer-nau.

    1.India must change its strategy into Nuke first option with regard to Pakistan and announce it  openly.

    2.Talk with Pakistani security establishment especially the Army Chief,foreign Ministry, etc and address their security concerns instead of going through western interlocutors.They want deactivation of our forward airbases and also movement back of Indian Army.They may even ask for parity and siachen withdrawal. SIACHEN  should be part of overall Kashmir settlement and no piece meal agreement on any issue.Our media should be told to IGNORE everything about Pakistan especially the escapades of their cricketers.

    2. Never allow Richard Holbrook to visit India and Pakistan together.

    3.Give Bangladesh all credit for a successful transition to democracy and also have frequent interactions with CITIZENS of that country.

   4.Cut down on aid to Afghanistan and increase it to Bangladesh. Make AID to Afghanistan in our NATIONAL INTEREST
AND NOT NATO'S

    5.Pay more attention to Chinese military and prepare for deterrence against that neighbour.Our Missile and Airforce deployment against Chinese should be credible to the Chinese i repeat to CHINESE.
        



       

    Palestinians/ the Eternal  Wailers
    
   As an Indian  Christian i had this admiration for Israeli David who felled the giant Palestinian fighter Goliath with his catapult. So when Indian government favored the Palestinian state over Israel I used to be emotionally aligned with Israel till i read the Arnold Toynbee's article about the history of Israeli/Palestinian conflict which explained the injustice done to Palestinians  very lucidly.Still the Munich Olympics,Laila khalid hijacking of 3 planes and burning them in desert of Jordan,Black September and Entree raid all were moulding  opinion of Indians like me.
   Thousands of Arabs , ranging from wealthy ABSENTEE land lords to fellahin small holders sold land to Zionist organizations during British rule.Many sold land for money  while many sold land to improve their life amongst their clans.Many Arabs also collaborated with Zionists due to their intense hatred for Amin al_Husayani whose role is very important in Palestinian history.His role as Grand Mufti of Al haqsa Mosque, collaboration with Nazi Germany and so many other activities at that time are folklore of Palestinians.Many could not fathom his rejection of white paper of 1939 in the Balfour Declaration  which promised Jewish Homeland along with Palestinian Arab majority rule and independence.
   

  Israel declared its independence on May 14, 1948. On 15 May 1948, the British Mandate officially expired and, in an official cablegram, the seven member Arab League, including Lebanon, publicly proclaimed their aim of creating a democratic "United State of Palestine" in place of the two-state solution proposed by the United Nations. The League soon entered the conflict on the side of the Palestinian Arabs, thus beginning the international phase of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Transjordan, and Iraq declared war on the new state of Israel. They expected an easy and quick victory in what came to be called the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. The Lebanon army joined the other Arab armies in the invasion. It crossed into the northern Galilee. By the end of the conflict, however, it had been repulsed by Israeli forces, which occupied South Lebanon. Israel signed armistice agreements with each of invading neighbours. The one with Lebanon was signed on 23 March 1949.As part of the agreement with Lebanon, Israel forces withdrew to the international border.

By the conclusion of that war, Israel had signed ceasefire agreements with all its Arab neighbors.As between itself and the area set aside for Arabs under the United Nations Partition Plan, Israel's territory was greatly beyond the borders allocated to it under the Plan.Out of 1.8 million Palestinians nearly 0.8 million Palestinians became refugees.The 1956 Suez canal crisis created by President Nasser of Egypt and also the 1967 Arab/Israeli war produced different borders for Israel.Israel had completed its final offensive in the Golan Heights, and a ceasefire was signed the day after. Israel had seized the Gaza Strip, the Sinai Peninsula, the West Bank of the Jordan River (including East Jerusalem), and the Golan Heights. Overall, Israel's territory grew by a factor of three, including about one million Arabs placed under Israel's direct control in the newly captured territories. Israel's strategic depth grew to at least 300 kilometers in the south, 60 kilometers in the east and 20 kilometers of extremely rugged terrain in the north, a security asset that would prove useful in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War six years later.
 THE 1973 Arab-Israel war  gave Arab states (and Egypt in particular), healing of their the psychological trauma of their defeat in the Six-Day War .In many ways, it allowed them to negotiate with the Israelis with some honour. However, given that the war had started about as well as the Arab leaders could have wanted, at the end they had made only limited territorial gains in the Sinai front, while Israel gained more territory on the Golan Heights than it held before the war; also given the fact that Israel managed to gain a foothold on African soil west of the canal, the war helped convince many in the Arab World that Israel could not be defeated militarily, thereby strengthening peace movements. The war effectively ended the old Arab ambition of destroying Israel by force especially after the separate treaty of peace with EGYPT.
    What one sees from the beginning of Palestinian /Israel conflict in the modern times is that OF  A VICIOUS CYCLE
1.A deal is offered to Palestinians  and Arabs.
2.They reject the deal offered by international community as they find it  unjust from their point of view as their aim is elimination of Israeli occupation.
3.They go to war or indulge in guerrilla warfare.
4.They get a wallop and loose territory and now ask for the the very deal offered by the International community in the first place.
5.Now Israel rejects their demand as it has gained  TERRITORY.
6.Palestinians vow revenge and continue their fight for the elimination of occupation by Israelis.
7.Again a deal is offered which is much worse than the number 1  and so the rejection by Palestinians as unjust and so the cycle continues till they loose more territory.
   The Palestinians are unable to understand that now they are the suckers just like the global Jehadies for the rich playboy Arabs who wear black goggles,have American wives,play golf in Texas ranch but also  fund them so that they read, slog,build homes,grow food and finally  get ready to fight so that they become the sacrificial lamb for the next round of sacrifice for MUSLIM UMMA.
This suits the Permanent five of UN also.
    My Air-India pilot friends used to say that a layover in Beirut used to be heaven and it used to be called the
Switzerland of east. They used to say that it is the Palestinians who are the brainy hardworking lot and who slog and do all the work while it is owned by Saudies . Lebanon had a peculiar political setup with Muslims,Maronite's,Druzes all having an equal say in the governance just like Jammu Hindus and Srinagar Muslims  used to have equal say in the governance of Kashmir kingdom. But then Terrorism of Muslim Umma and the folly of joining 1948 Arab/Israeli war killed its uniqueness.
    GEORGE HABBASH of the Popular front for liberation of Palestine was more dreaded by Israelis than even Fatah for its uniqueness in fighting and its secular following. But then Saudies have to intervene with wink from USA/UK and they supported Arafat and his Fatah through  which the secular appeal of Palestinian resistance was changed to one of MUSLIM UMMA's resistance.
   Today as Israel pulverises Gaza the MUSLIM UMMA IS DOING THE FOLLOWING.
1. Saudi Arabia , the richest nation and so called protector of two of Islam's holy sites is blaming Hamas for the conflict. Saudies never acknowledge  their own role in the scuttling of a reasonable deal between Arafat and Ekud Barack which is the at the root cause of the present  conflict.Iran continues to be their main enemy.
2.Pakistan the only Islamic  Nuke power and the second largest Muslim nation whose General Zia-ul-haq killed nearly 10,000 Palestinians in aid of King Hussein of Jordan will not send its troops or its nukes in aid of Palestinians. (It sends its troops for Cheney's Jundollah to kill IRANIANS or for LET to kill Indian civilians).It threatens India with first strike of Nukes but not Israel. As with Muslim Umma it organized a demonstration in support of Hamas in Kashmir and even in India!!!!
3. Indonesia and Bangladesh, Malaysia  are also  organizing demonstrations.
4.Iran which is the main sponsor of Hamas is afraid of US power and can give only verbal support through its President as it fears it can be attacked by US itself in the guise of Nuclear ambition( a false reason).It has used this crisis to whip up frenzy which made 70,000 Iranian students to volunteer to fight for Hamas but will stay in Iran ofcourse
5.The only Arab nation which can be of any help is Egypt but it has closed its Rafah border even for refugees and
humanitarian help.
   So the Palestinians continue to bleed.
  SOON THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL WILL ORDER CEASEFIRE ( it is done deal today)WHICH WILL STOP HAMAS ROCKETS ALONG WITH ISRAEL WITHDRAWAL BUT BY THEN THE CYCLE WHICH I MENTIONED EARLIER WILL REPEAT ITSELF with significant physical/human damage to palestininas in Gaza.
  IT IS FOR PALESTINIANS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT IS THEIR SITUATION AND DECIDE THEIR FUTURE.

1.END OF ISRAELI OCCUPATION CAN ONLY BE ACHIEVED BY BEING PART OF UNIFIED  ISRAEL /PALESTINE STATE  WITH PALESTINIANS HAVING EQUAL RIGHTS IN EVERY WAY.
2. VOTE FOR DEMOCRACY and ABANDON MUSLIM UMMA's help so that secular world can atleast support its cause fully as of now they are equated with Jehadies.
3.THE ISRAELIES WILL BE FORCED INTO A CORNER WITH THIS TACTIC AND THE WORLD WILL FIND it DIFFICULT TO OPPOSE IT.
4.TEMPLE MOUNT WAS ORIGINALLY A JEWISH TEMPLE AND THAT IS WHY THE QUIBLA WAS CHANGED FROM JERUSALEM TO MECCA  BY PROPHET MOHAMMED HIMSELF(pubh)with its TWO OF THE HOLIEST ISLAMIC SITES. AL AQSA MUST BE MADE INTO A PLACE OF WORSHIP FOR ALL RELIGIONS WHO BELIEVE IN ABRAHAM.  PALESTINIANS SHOULD GIVE THEIR PRESENT RIGHT VOLUNTARILY TO UNITED NATIONS.
   It is for Palestinian leadership OF HAMAS,FATA,HEZBOLLAH  to think about their history and achieve for their future generations what their forefathers blundered.In 1911 a Palestinian maths teacher named Mustafa Effendi Tamr predicted
  "You are selling the property of your fathers and grandfathers for a pittance to people who will have no pity on you, to those who will act to expel you and expunge your memory from your habitations and disperse you among the nations. This is a crime that will be recorded in your names in history, a black stain and disgrace that your descendants will bear, which will not be expunged even after years and eras have gone by."

   THE PALESTINIAN LEADERSHIP CAN  GET INTO THE VICIOUS CYCLE WHICH I HAVE MENTIONED EARLIER . Their struggle with Israel predates the of birth of Christianity and Islam and also when  Romans (present day US/UK) were worshiping extinct Gods like Zeus and Diana